The 3 changes that decide the month, and the 2 actions already assigned against them.
4 questions ranked in section 10, 8 actions in section 11. September 2026 holds 3 of 4 closed weeks, so read the T13W column.
The business grew 11.3% while Amazon fell 20.8% over the trailing 13 weeks - read Amazon alone and a growing business looks like a falling one.
Windows and grading rules are in section 13.
Amazon and Shopify report different things, so the two measures both produce are the two shown. Everything else is per channel.
| Metric | MTD | MTD vs PY | T13W | vs prior 13W | vs prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | $38,334 | ↑+15.9% | $160,318 | ↓-0.1% | ↑+11.3% |
| Units | 2,355 | ↑+14.9% | 9,871 | ↓-1.7% | ↑+9.2% |
Amazon FBA alone.
| Metric | MTD | MTD vs PY | T13W | vs prior 13W | vs prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordered Product Sales · lead | $18,981 | ↓-17.0% | $78,481 | ↓-22.1% | ↓-20.8% |
| Units Ordered | 1,118 | ↓-18.3% | 4,595 | ↓-23.2% | ↓-22.8% |
| Sessions | 8,694 | ↓-28.3% | 37,025 | ↓-29.6% | ↓-30.8% |
| Unit Session Percentage | 12.86% | ↑+157 bps | 12.41% | ↑+103 bps | ↑+129 bps |
| Average Selling Price | $16.98 | ↑+1.7% | $17.08 | ↑+1.4% | ↑+2.5% |
| Featured Offer (Buy Box) Percentage | 99.50% | →-0 bps | 96.84% | ↓-266 bps | ↓-266 bps |
| Refund Rate | 2.59% | ↑+62 bps | 2.94% | ↑+1 bps | ↑+95 bps |
| Star Rating | 4.42 | ↓-0.12 | 4.42 | ↓-0.03 | ↓-0.12 |
Every Shopify channel combined. An orders export carries no sessions, so there is no traffic or conversion row.
| Metric | MTD | MTD vs PY | T13W | vs prior 13W | vs prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | $19,353 | ↑+89.4% | $81,837 | ↑+37.2% | ↑+82.3% |
| Units | 1,237 | ↑+81.9% | 5,276 | ↑+30.1% | ↑+70.5% |
| Orders | 936 | ↑+88.0% | 3,810 | ↑+36.4% | ↑+78.0% |
| Average Order Value | $20.68 | ↑+0.8% | $21.48 | ↑+0.6% | ↑+2.4% |
| Gross Revenue | $21,097 | ↑+89.2% | $88,964 | ↑+36.8% | ↑+81.9% |
| Discounts Given | $1,744 | ↑+87.0% | $7,127 | ↑+32.5% | ↑+77.0% |
| Discount Rate | 8.27% | ↓-10 bps | 8.01% | ↓-26 bps | ↓-22 bps |
| Discounted Orders | 205 | ↑+188.7% | 856 | ↑+75.4% | ↑+177.9% |
| Orders with a Code | 21.90% | ↑+764 bps | 22.47% | ↑+499 bps | ↑+807 bps |
| Refunds | $0 | →+$0 | $0 | →+$0 | →+$0 |
| Refund Rate | 0.00% | →+0 bps | 0.00% | →+0 bps | →+0 bps |
B2B, separate per rule R4. $1,019 on 68 units, 1.30% of trailing sales and 1.35% across all 104 weeks. Every other figure here is consumer-only.
| Channel | Net revenue, 13W | Share | Units, 13W | vs prior 13W | vs prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon FBA | $78,481 | 48.95% | 4,595 | -22.1% | -20.8% |
| DTC web | $51,203 | 31.94% | 2,901 | +57.2% | +122.0% |
| Subscription, first order | $3,506 | 2.19% | 240 | +44.4% | +109.2% |
| Subscription, recurring | $23,431 | 14.62% | 1,607 | +16.5% | +42.5% |
| Wholesale | $3,696 | 2.31% | 528 | -18.5% | +0.0% |
| Total business | $160,318 | 100.00% | 9,871 | -0.1% | +11.3% |
The rows that decide the month, week by week over 13 weeks, with the latest week read against the average of the 4 before it.
2026-06-28 to 2026-09-20. The other 27 metrics are in section 12.
| Metric | Trend | 06-28 | 07-05 | 07-12 | 07-19 | 07-26 | 08-02 | 08-09 | 08-16 | 08-23 | 08-30 | 09-06 | 09-13 | 09-20 | Latest | vs prior 4W avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue and basket | ||||||||||||||||
| Net Revenue | $12K | $12K | $12K | $12K | $13K | $13K | $11K | $12K | $12K | $13K | $13K | $13K | $12K | $12,362 | -$378 | |
| Units | 718 | 731 | 748 | 750 | 813 | 796 | 698 | 718 | 743 | 801 | 802 | 801 | 752 | 752 | -35 | |
| Metric | Trend | 06-28 | 07-05 | 07-12 | 07-19 | 07-26 | 08-02 | 08-09 | 08-16 | 08-23 | 08-30 | 09-06 | 09-13 | 09-20 | Latest | vs prior 4W avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue and basket | ||||||||||||||||
| Ordered Product Sales | $6.2K | $6.1K | $6.3K | $6.1K | $5.9K | $6.1K | $5.0K | $4.9K | $6.3K | $6.5K | $6.4K | $6.5K | $6.1K | $6,118 | -$289 | |
| Units Ordered | 364 | 358 | 373 | 359 | 348 | 358 | 288 | 280 | 370 | 379 | 376 | 382 | 360 | 360 | -17 | |
| Average Selling Price | $17.03 | $16.96 | $16.94 | $17.10 | $17.03 | $17.07 | $17.47 | $17.64 | $17.02 | $17.07 | $17.01 | $16.93 | $17.00 | $17.00 | -$0.01 | |
| Traffic and conversion | ||||||||||||||||
| Sessions | 2.8K | 2.7K | 2.9K | 2.8K | 2.8K | 2.8K | 2.9K | 2.8K | 2.9K | 3.0K | 2.9K | 3.0K | 2.9K | 2,856 | -78 | |
| Page Views | 3.8K | 3.6K | 3.8K | 3.8K | 3.7K | 3.7K | 3.8K | 3.8K | 3.9K | 4.0K | 3.9K | 4.0K | 3.8K | 3,827 | -105 | |
| Unit Session Percentage | 12.9% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 12.61% | -0.23 pp | |
| Fulfillment | ||||||||||||||||
| Featured Offer (Buy Box) Percentage | 99.5% | 99.5% | 99.5% | 99.5% | 99.5% | 99.5% | 82.1% | 82.1% | 99.5% | 99.5% | 99.5% | 99.5% | 99.5% | 99.50% | -0.00 pp | |
| Average Offer Count | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.00 | |
| Refund Rate | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.78% | +0.05 pp | |
| Trust and reviews | ||||||||||||||||
| Star Rating | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 | -0.00 | |
| Metric | Trend | 06-28 | 07-05 | 07-12 | 07-19 | 07-26 | 08-02 | 08-09 | 08-16 | 08-23 | 08-30 | 09-06 | 09-13 | 09-20 | Latest | vs prior 4W avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue and basket | ||||||||||||||||
| Net Revenue | $6.1K | $5.8K | $5.8K | $6.3K | $6.8K | $6.5K | $6.3K | $6.6K | $6.0K | $6.2K | $6.4K | $6.7K | $6.2K | $6,243 | -$89 | |
| Units | 354 | 373 | 375 | 391 | 465 | 438 | 410 | 438 | 373 | 422 | 426 | 419 | 392 | 392 | -18 | |
| Orders | 269 | 279 | 284 | 286 | 302 | 282 | 309 | 292 | 285 | 286 | 305 | 319 | 312 | 312 | +13 | |
| Average Order Value | $22.61 | $20.89 | $20.57 | $21.89 | $22.64 | $23.06 | $20.48 | $22.56 | $21.16 | $21.64 | $21.11 | $20.91 | $20.01 | $20.01 | -$1.20 | |
| Pricing and promotion | ||||||||||||||||
| Discount Rate | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.47% | +0.42 pp | |
| Fulfillment | ||||||||||||||||
| Refund Rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00% | +0.00 pp | |
Amazon's weekly sales fell 21.4% from May 2026 to June and have not recovered, $7,919 a week to $6,224, and $6,327 in September.
Both charts mark Jun 2026. Table in section 14.
The shaded band runs from the peak to the latest month.
3 singles carry 91.34% of Amazon revenue and the Care Kit 8.66% - it reads a 3.93% Unit Session Percentage against 10.33% to 12.52%.
Every child ASIN, 2026-01-01 to 2026-09-30. A point-in-time read with no trend behind it until the same report is archived monthly.
| Variant | Revenue | Mix | Units | Sessions | Traffic | Conversion | ASP | Buy Box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8oz | $121,689 | 43.40% | 8,118 | 64,856 | 42.00% | 12.52% | $14.99 | 97.86% |
| 16oz | $73,338 | 26.15% | 3,190 | 30,884 | 20.00% | 10.33% | $22.99 | 99.50% |
| 5oz | $61,118 | 21.80% | 4,705 | 43,237 | 28.00% | 10.88% | $12.99 | 99.50% |
| 3-Pack | $24,274 | 8.66% | 607 | 15,442 | 10.00% | 3.93% | $39.99 | 99.50% |
Amazon sessions fell 30.8% while Unit Session Percentage rose 129 bps to 12.41%, and the storefront has no session data to set beside them.
Traffic is Amazon-only, so there is no consolidated read.
Shopify's orders export carries no sessions, so there is no traffic or conversion read for the storefront.
Mobile app 26,287 sessions, browser 10,738, over the trailing 13 weeks. Mobile is 71.00% of the total.
The 8 complete weeks either side of 2026-06-07. Amazon traffic and Shopify orders reach a customer by separate routes, and they moved in opposite directions.
| Measure | 8W before | 8W after | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon net revenue | $65,166 | $49,347 | -24.3% |
| Amazon sessions | 35,030 | 22,436 | -36.0% |
| DTC orders | 1,567 | 2,264 | +44.5% |
| DTC net revenue | $32,937 | $49,719 | +50.9% |
Indexed to each series' own pre-break average so two scales share an axis. The 100 line is the 8 weeks before 2026-06-07.
Amazon's Buy Box read 82.07% for 2 weeks in August 2026 while a second seller held Board Oil 8oz, and 99.50% in the other 11.
Buy Box and offer count are Amazon-only, and refunds are counted differently on each channel, so nothing here is blendable.
Kestrel promotes on one channel and not the other - 22.47% of Shopify orders carry a code, and 0 of 3 Amazon mechanisms were used in 12 months.
Price is per channel and never blended. Amazon's promotional record is the Keepa comparison below, and Shopify's discount rate is on the Shopify tab.
| Series | 24-10 | 24-11 | 24-12 | 25-01 | 25-02 | 25-03 | 25-04 | 25-05 | 25-06 | 25-07 | 25-08 | 25-09 | 25-10 | 25-11 | 25-12 | 26-01 | 26-02 | 26-03 | 26-04 | 26-05 | 26-06 | 26-07 | 26-08 | 26-09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kestrel Board Oil 8oz | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 |
| Comp average | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.50 | $12.49 | $12.49 | $12.49 | $12.49 | $12.49 | $12.49 | $12.49 | $12.49 | $12.73 | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.74 | $12.74 |
| Index | 118 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 118 | 118 |
What every listing charged since 2024-09-30. A thickened stretch is a promotion and the shape at its start says which kind. The table below counts from 2025-10-01.
Selection needs JavaScript. The chart above is the default comparison and is complete without it.
Promotional columns cover 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-02, units the 3 months to 2026-10-02. Definitions in section 13.
| Product | Brand | Price | Reference | Realized | Days on discount | Avg depth | Coupons | Deals | Mechanisms | Units a month | Unit share | Best Seller Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Board Cream 5oz | Kestrel Kitchen | $12.99 | $12.99 | $12.99 | 0.00% | - | 0 | 0 | 0 of 3 | 307 | 3.82% | 8,814 |
| Board Oil 16oz | Kestrel Kitchen | $22.99 | $22.99 | $22.99 | 0.00% | - | 0 | 0 | 0 of 3 | 203 | 2.53% | 10,628 |
| Board Oil 8oz | Kestrel Kitchen | $14.99 | $14.99 | $14.99 | 0.00% | - | 0 | 0 | 0 of 3 | 796 | 9.91% | 3,172 |
| Care Kit 3-pack | Kestrel Kitchen | $39.99 | $39.99 | $39.99 | 0.00% | - | 0 | 0 | 0 of 3 | 50 | 0.62% | 68,390 |
| Butcher Block Oil 12oz | Ashgrove | $12.99 | $12.99 | $12.99 | 0.00% | - | 6 | 0 | 1 of 3 | 3,000 | 37.38% | 930 |
| Wood Conditioner 8oz | Millbrook | $12.49 | $12.49 | $12.28 | 41.53% | 4.00% | 1 | 2 | 3 of 3 | 2,000 | 24.92% | 1,557 |
| Mineral Oil 16oz | Northgrain | $19.99 | $19.99 | $19.99 | 0.00% | - | 0 | 0 | 0 of 3 | 669 | 8.34% | 4,149 |
| Board Butter 4oz | Tallow and Teak | $16.99 | $16.99 | $16.90 | 9.02% | 5.89% | 0 | 0 | 1 of 3 | 1,000 | 12.46% | 2,601 |
Rows shaded red have never used any of the three mechanisms. This is the floor on promotional activity and never the ceiling, because a coupon leaves no trace in price history. See F4.
Indexed to 2026-01 = 100, and higher is worse. The reading: the market held still and Kestrel's Amazon listing fell.
| Brand · ASIN | 26-01 | 26-02 | 26-03 | 26-04 | 26-05 | 26-06 | 26-07 | 26-08 | 26-09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kestrel Board Oil 8oz · B0DEMOKK01 | 100 | 90 | 92 | 84 | 91 | 121 | 127 | 134 | 111 |
| Ashgrove · B0DEMORV01 | 100 | 102 | 100 | 100 | 102 | 102 | 100 | 101 | 103 |
| Millbrook · B0DEMORV03 | 100 | 99 | 99 | 98 | 101 | 98 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Northgrain · B0DEMORV04 | 100 | 101 | 99 | 99 | 100 | 102 | 101 | 103 | 99 |
| Tallow and Teak · B0DEMORV02 | 100 | 100 | 102 | 104 | 104 | 98 | 101 | 100 | 103 |
Spend by channel is not in hand, and it is what settles whether the June move was a budget decision.
Unblocked by: Amazon Sponsored Products and paid social spend by month, 2026-03 to 2026-09. This is action 1.
Board Cream fell from 4.6 to 4.2 on Amazon in 2026 on 1,034 reviews, and 0 of the 4 competitors' ratings fell.
Two marks to read.
Selection needs JavaScript. The two charts above are the default comparison and are complete without it.
| Product | Brand | ASIN | Rating now | Start of year | Move | Reviews |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Board Cream 5oz | Kestrel Kitchen | B0DEMOKK02 |
4.2 | 4.6 | -0.4 | 1,034 |
| Board Oil 16oz | Kestrel Kitchen | B0DEMOKK03 |
4.6 | 4.6 | +0.0 | 696 |
| Board Oil 8oz | Kestrel Kitchen | B0DEMOKK01 |
4.5 | 4.5 | +0.0 | 1,576 |
| Care Kit 3-pack | Kestrel Kitchen | B0DEMOKK04 |
4.3 | 4.3 | +0.0 | 164 |
| Butcher Block Oil 12oz | Ashgrove | B0DEMORV01 |
4.5 | 4.5 | +0.0 | 4,280 |
| Wood Conditioner 8oz | Millbrook | B0DEMORV03 |
4.3 | 4.3 | +0.0 | 1,932 |
| Mineral Oil 16oz | Northgrain | B0DEMORV04 |
4.6 | 4.6 | +0.0 | 1,420 |
| Board Butter 4oz | Tallow and Teak | B0DEMORV02 |
4.4 | 4.4 | +0.0 | 692 |
1 of 4 Kestrel Kitchen listings rate lower than they did at the start of the year, against 0 of 4 competitors.
4 questions, ranked by what to target first. One has a confirmed cause, and the other 3 name what would settle them.
Status definitions are in section 13, and every action cited is in section 11 with an owner and a date.
At stake: $20,670 of Amazon sales over 13 weeks, while Shopify net revenue rose 82.3%. So far. Demand moved, it didn't disappear. Amazon sessions fell 36.0% after the week of 2026-06-07 and Shopify orders rose 44.5% across the same weeks. Ad budget moving to the storefront fits both, and ad spend by channel settles it. F2
| Candidate | Status | Evidence | Settled by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Category downturn | eliminated | All 4 rivals' Amazon rank held between 98 and 104 against January 2026 while Board Oil 8oz went to 121 in June. | closed |
| Seasonality | eliminated | The same weeks of 2025 moved 2.3% in Amazon sessions and 0.8% in Shopify orders. | closed |
| Amazon price | eliminated | $14.99 held throughout and the index read 118 on both sides. F4 | closed |
| Buy Box loss | unlikely | Real, but 2 weeks long and 9 weeks after the move began. F6 | action 7 |
| Ad budget moved from Amazon to the storefront | untested | The only candidate that reaches both channels. Amazon sessions fell and storefront orders rose in the same week, and Amazon conversion rose, which is what losing paid traffic looks like. F1 F7 | action 1 |
Start here At stake: Unsized until cost data lands. Answered. Kestrel holds a premium on Amazon and never promotes there, while discounting more than a fifth of Shopify orders. Participation is the gap, and it needs no new data to act on. F4
| Candidate | Status | Evidence | Settled by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price level | eliminated | Amazon index 118 before and after 2026-06-07. A premium that did not change cannot explain a fall that did. | closed |
| Promotional participation | confirmed | 0 of 3 Amazon mechanisms on 4 listings over 12 months, against 6 coupons at Ashgrove and 2 deals at Millbrook. F4 | action 6 |
At stake: 0.4 stars on the listing that carries 21.80% of Amazon revenue. So far. Not established. A rating is an outcome and the review text is the diagnosis, and reading it is ours to do. F5
| Candidate | Status | Evidence | Settled by |
|---|---|---|---|
| A packaging or supplier change | untested | The decline starts in April 2026 on one listing only, which fits a change to that product rather than to the brand. | action 3 |
| Damage in fulfilment | untested | Amazon refund rate rose 95 bps year over year. The FBA returns report says whether Board Cream drives it. | action 4 |
At stake: About $6,175 year to date for each point of Unit Session Percentage. So far. Not established. Three candidates, none tested, and they separate by changing one lever at a time. F3
| Candidate | Status | Evidence | Settled by |
|---|---|---|---|
| The offer saves too little | untested | 6.9% off its parts. A repricing test settles this without any new export. | action 5 |
| Its 4.3 rating | untested | The second-lowest Kestrel listing, on 164 reviews. | action 3 |
| Kit demand is simply thinner | untested | The null hypothesis. It stands if action 5 changes the offer and conversion does not move. | action 5 |
Things the packet cannot yet measure. Each names what closes it.
| ID | Gap | Closes when |
|---|---|---|
| F7 | The storefront has no traffic data: Shopify's orders export carries no sessions, so storefront conversion cannot be read beside Amazon's. | Closes when storefront sessions by day are loaded for 2025-06 to 2026-09. |
Full register with every finding's evidence is in
Findings.md. Numbers never repeat, so F3 means the same thing
in every packet.
8 actions, each with an owner and a date. Data requests come first, because they are what moves the 3 open questions.
Nothing leaves as "soon".
| # | Action | The question it answers | Owner | Due |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data and access we need | ||||
| 1 | Send ad spend by channel and month for 2026-03 to 2026-09, Amazon Sponsored Products and paid social together. | Did budget move from Amazon to the storefront in the week of 2026-06-07? It is the one candidate that reaches both channels. | Kestrel | 2026-10-09 |
| 2 | Export Shopify sessions by day for 2025-06 to 2026-09. Shopify > Analytics > Reports > Sessions over time. | Did storefront orders rise from more visitors or better conversion? | Kestrel | 2026-10-09 |
| 3 | Read Board Cream and Care Kit reviews from 2026-03-01 onward. Sentopi's own review analysis, so nothing to send. | What complaint is behind Board Cream's fall from 4.6 to 4.2, and is the Care Kit's 4.3 the same one? | Sentopi | 2026-10-07 |
| 4 | Pull the FBA customer returns report for 2026-04 to 2026-09. | Do Board Cream returns cite damage or leaks, and do they explain the 95 bps rise in Amazon refund rate? | Kestrel | 2026-10-09 |
| 8 | Send landed unit cost per SKU, the Amazon Payments report and Shopify payment and shipping costs for 2026-01 to 2026-09. | Which channel earns more per order, and what discount depth the margin allows on Amazon. | Kestrel | 2026-10-14 |
| Changes and checks | ||||
| 5 | Test the Care Kit at $36.99 on Amazon for 4 weeks, which saves a shopper 13.9% against its parts. | - | Kestrel | 2026-10-16 |
| 6 | Run a coupon on Board Oil 8oz in the October Amazon deal window, at the depth action 8 allows. | - | Kestrel | 2026-10-07 |
| 7 | Identify the August Buy Box seller through Brand Registry and report it if unauthorized. | - | Kestrel | 2026-10-14 |
Every metric the exports support, by channel, across 104 weeks.
Everything above is static and complete without this.
This appendix needs JavaScript. The static sections above carry the full report without it.
How each number is built, and the 2 things this packet cannot answer, each named rather than left as a silence.
| Section | Rule | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 02 | Provenance | Built by builder/build.py from the raw exports listed under Sources below, pulled 2026-10-02. Every figure derives from those files and nothing is hand-entered. History covers 104 complete weeks, 2024-09-29 to 2026-09-20, on Amazon only. |
| 02 | Windows | Month to date covers 2026-09-06, 2026-09-13, 2026-09-20. The trailing window covers 13 weeks to 2026-09-20. Year over year compares the aligned week 52 weeks earlier, preserving day of week. |
| 02 | Grading | Green with an arrow marks a favourable move for that metric, red an unfavourable one. Direction and colour always travel together, so a reading never depends on colour alone. Neutral metrics such as average selling price are never graded. |
| 08 | Price source | Buy Box price where Keepa has it, marketplace New where it does not. Buy Box is what a shopper actually pays and includes shipping. The strip beneath the axis repeats the same promotional windows as a density view, one row per listing labelled by ASIN. |
| 08 | Reference price | The price a listing held for the most days, not its most common change event, so a price held for a few days never sets the reference. Coupons come from Keepa's coupon history and are invisible in price data otherwise, so every promotional count here is a floor and never a ceiling. |
| 08 | Price index | Kestrel Board Oil 8oz's Buy Box price over the simple mean of Ashgrove and Millbrook, times 100, each a time-weighted monthly mean. |
| 08 | Realized price and depth | Realized is the time-weighted mean of what a listing charged across the promotional window. Average depth is how far below reference it sat on its days below reference. A listing can spend many days below reference by a few cents, so read days and depth together. |
| 08 | Unit estimate | Keepa's record of Amazon's bought-in-past-month badge, averaged over the last 3 months. Amazon rounds it down into coarse steps, so share ranks listings and never sizes a decision. |
| 08 | Buy Box sellers | How many distinct sellers have held the Featured Offer. A resale-pressure signal as much as a pricing one. |
| 08 | Rank indexing | Indexing is what lets a listing ranked in the thousands and one ranked in the hundreds share one axis honestly. Rank is a direction and not a unit count, so it is never converted into a sales estimate. A brand with no reading at the base month shows no row. |
| 09 | Keepa is a change log | A point is recorded when a value moves, so a flat stretch means no change and never missing data. Rating is weighted by review count, because a 25-review listing and a 176-review one are not equal evidence. |
| 04 | Two charts, not two axes | Plotting dollars and sessions on a shared axis would let the choice of scale imply a relationship the data hasn't demonstrated. |
| 10 | What a status means | Four statuses. Confirmed means we have evidence the input is wrong and can act. Eliminated means evidence rules the candidate out. Unlikely means the evidence points away from it without closing it. Untested means no data in hand can settle it, and the export that would is named beside it. |
| 10 | Findings against constraints | A constraint is a structural limit on what this engagement can measure and rarely closes. A finding is something true about Kestrel Kitchen that we can act on. |
| 11 | Dates | Every row carries an owner and a date. Where a real date isn't yet knowable we set a date by which the date gets set. |
| Rule | Title | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | Weeks are labelled by their start date | Amazon's Business Report labels each weekly row by the Sunday the week begins, not the day it ends. Every period in this packet is named by its start date. A reader comparing against a week-ending convention will be off by six days. |
| R2 | The trailing partial week is excluded | The final row of any pull covers only the days elapsed at pull time, so reading it as a full week understates that week and inverts the week-over-week read. Excluded weeks are listed in the data-gaps section rather than dropped silently. |
| R3 | Rates are recomputed, never averaged | Conversion, refund rate, and every other ratio is recomputed from summed numerators and denominators at whatever grain is being shown. Averaging weekly percentages weights a 500-session week equally with a 1,500-session one. |
| R4 | B2B is reported separately | Amazon supplies a parallel B2B column for most metrics. Those are carried as their own series and never folded into the headline, so a shift in business mix cannot masquerade as consumer demand. |
| R5 | Prior-year alignment is 52 weeks, not the calendar date | Year-over-year compares against the week 52 weeks earlier, preserving day of week. The same calendar date a year prior lands on a different weekday and makes weekday seasonality uncomparable. |
The 12 metrics this packet shows. The rest are
filterable in section 12 and defined in full in
Reference/Metric Dictionary.md.
| Metric | Lever | Definition | Rolls up by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Offer Count | operations | Mean number of competing offers on the listing. A listing property rather than a flow, so it takes a plain mean across weeks. A rise means more sellers are contesting the Buy Box. | mean |
| Star Rating | ratings | Kestrel Kitchen's customer star rating, averaged across its tracked listings and weighted by each listing's review count, from Keepa's rating history. The rating a shopper sees, as distinct from seller feedback. | external |
| Average Selling Price | growth | Ordered Product Sales divided by Units Ordered. Derived rather than taken from Amazon's own column so it aggregates correctly across weeks. | ratio |
| Featured Offer (Buy Box) Percentage | operations | Share of page views where the brand held the Featured Offer. Amazon supplies this pre-computed, so it is aggregated as a session-weighted mean rather than recomputed. | weighted_mean |
| Ordered Product Sales | growth | Total value of products ordered in the period, before returns. | sum |
| Page Views | visibility | Total product page views. Not deduplicated, unlike sessions. | sum |
| Refund Rate | operations | Units Refunded divided by Units Ordered. Recomputed at every grain rather than averaged from Amazon's weekly percentage. | ratio |
| Sessions - Browser | visibility | Sessions originating in a web browser. | sum |
| Sessions - Mobile App | visibility | Sessions originating in the Amazon mobile app. | sum |
| Sessions | visibility | Visits to the product pages, deduplicated within 24 hours. | sum |
| Unit Session Percentage | visibility | Units Ordered divided by Sessions. Amazon's own name for it, and it is not a conversion rate: a visitor buying two jars counts twice in the numerator and once as a session. Order Item Session Percentage is the closer read of what share of visits bought. Kept under Amazon's name because that is the column Seller Central reports, and it is the metric that separates a traffic problem from a listing problem. | ratio |
| Units Ordered | growth | Number of units ordered in the period. | sum |
Carried forward from Kickoff.md. Numbers
are never reused, so C3 means the same thing in every packet.
| ID | Constraint | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| C1 | Amazon returns no customer identity | OPEN | FBA orders carry no customer id, so repeat purchase and lifetime value can be computed for subscriptions and never for Amazon. |
| - | Contribution margin by channel | BLOCKED | No cost data has been received, so it is unknown whether a Shopify order at $21.48 earns more than an Amazon order after fees. Unblocked by Landed unit cost per SKU, Amazon fees from the Payments report, and Shopify payment and shipping costs. This is action 8. |
Tie-out: 19,788 orders load to $432,190 against Shopify's own reported subtotal of $432,190, a residual of 0.00%. The series ends 2026-09-20 because every channel settles to 2026-09-30, and the week of 2026-09-27 is partial on all of them. A consolidated week is never shown short a channel, because a missing channel reads as a fall rather than as missing.
| File | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
amazon-sales-traffic-weekly-2yr-2026-10-02.csv | amazon_sales_traffic | primary |
amazon-sales-traffic-daily-30d-2026-10-02.csv | amazon_sales_traffic | horizon |
shopify-orders-2026-10-02.csv | shopify_orders | channels |
Every complete Amazon week since 2024-09-29, by month - the table behind the long-arc charts.
Behind the long-arc charts in section 04.
| Month | Weeks | Ordered Product Sales | Units | Sessions | Conversion | ASP | Buy Box | Offers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2024 · partial | 1 | $6,780 | 408 | 3,760 | 10.85% | $16.62 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Oct 2024 | 4 | $28,859 | 1,729 | 15,848 | 10.91% | $16.69 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Nov 2024 | 4 | $35,300 | 2,114 | 19,082 | 11.08% | $16.70 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Dec 2024 | 5 | $47,273 | 2,820 | 25,755 | 10.95% | $16.76 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Jan 2025 | 4 | $26,013 | 1,555 | 14,352 | 10.83% | $16.73 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Feb 2025 | 4 | $29,371 | 1,767 | 15,990 | 11.05% | $16.62 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Mar 2025 | 5 | $37,012 | 2,213 | 20,348 | 10.88% | $16.72 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Apr 2025 | 4 | $30,573 | 1,835 | 16,602 | 11.05% | $16.66 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| May 2025 | 4 | $29,616 | 1,779 | 16,071 | 11.07% | $16.65 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Jun 2025 | 5 | $36,835 | 2,209 | 20,159 | 10.96% | $16.67 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Jul 2025 | 4 | $30,942 | 1,861 | 16,790 | 11.08% | $16.63 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Aug 2025 | 5 | $37,931 | 2,274 | 20,486 | 11.10% | $16.68 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Sep 2025 | 4 | $30,187 | 1,808 | 16,203 | 11.16% | $16.70 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Oct 2025 | 4 | $30,766 | 1,846 | 16,496 | 11.19% | $16.67 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Nov 2025 | 5 | $49,170 | 2,944 | 26,287 | 11.20% | $16.70 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Dec 2025 | 4 | $41,598 | 2,490 | 22,485 | 11.07% | $16.71 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Jan 2026 | 4 | $29,065 | 1,738 | 15,658 | 11.10% | $16.72 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Feb 2026 | 4 | $32,419 | 1,934 | 17,350 | 11.15% | $16.76 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Mar 2026 | 5 | $41,056 | 2,450 | 22,052 | 11.11% | $16.76 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Apr 2026 | 4 | $34,278 | 2,046 | 18,273 | 11.20% | $16.75 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| May 2026 | 5 | $39,593 | 2,348 | 21,458 | 10.94% | $16.86 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Jun 2026 | 4 | $24,895 | 1,468 | 11,262 | 13.03% | $16.96 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Jul 2026 | 4 | $24,452 | 1,438 | 11,174 | 12.87% | $17.00 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
| Aug 2026 | 5 | $28,850 | 1,675 | 14,337 | 11.68% | $17.22 | 92.62% | 1.8 |
| Sep 2026 · partial | 3 | $18,981 | 1,118 | 8,694 | 12.86% | $16.98 | 99.50% | 1.0 |
2 of 25 months are partial and all are excluded from peak detection.